You obviously can't choose which games you're going to score in (he's scored 4 in 7 games in the Europa league so nothing too wrong there) but with only 2 goals from 10 games so far in the Premier League means some people are questioning whether last season was a case of over-performing.
In this piece, I'll look in more detail at the type of opportunities Michu's had in the league so far this season compared with 2012/13 to show that it's more the type of chances that's impacted the goal return rather than any major drop off in form.
If you just looked at top level stats, they'd suggest a major drop off both in goals per 90 minutes played and shot conversion but no real drop off in shot volume. Taken at face value that would suggest a big change in performance.
|Season Stats: Shot volume at similar level but conversion (and therefore goals) way down|
|Michu 2012/13 - 75% of Shots from inside the box, and most of that in central areas|
|Michu 2013/14 - Similar shots per game volume but greater proportion outside box and little in the previous 'sweet spot' just to the right hand side of the goal in between 6 yard box and penalty spot|
One way of trying to add a layer of context to any shot is Opta's Clear Cut Chance (CCC) which is defined as where there is a 'reasonable' expectation of a goal.
The concept of a Clear Cut Chance isn't perfect as it's to some extent subjective. Overall across all Clear Cut Chances, conversion is around 35% (after penalties which are also bundled in with Cleat Cut Chances and have a conversion of around 80% are removed).
Using the Clear Cut Chance metric gives us a rough guide to the quality of chances and looking at that, it can be seen there is a major change in the quality of chances Michu's had in the Premier League so far this season.
If you look at this video of Michu's goals last season, the goals are a mixture of being in the right place at the right time and those with quick clinical finishes, Michu is able to get a lot of power with relatively little backlift meaning keepers have less time to set themselves. My favourite bit though is Arsene Wenger furiously trying to undo his jacket after Michu scores his second against Arsenal at the Emirates.
There's also the fact that it's only 10 league games so far this season (Michu missed the game vs. Stoke through injury) and one good game and all the stats are suddenly back on track.
Looking at where Michu scored last season there were a couple of 'purple patches', the start of the season with 4 goals in the first 3 games, and 7 in 7 games midway through the season. Also I'd argue that Bony's two goals vs. Stoke were exactly the type of goals Michu was scoring in the league last season (I'd also have put my house on him scoring the 1v1 Bony had in that match).
|Goals scored by Premier League game 2012/13|
As I mentioned at the start it's difficult to be truly objective when you're attached, but I've seen enough of him to believe that the season as a whole was representative of his ability not the goals return from the second half of it or the comparatively low return so far this season.
Repeating the feat of 18 league goals in a season may be a stretch but if him and Bony get 25+ in the league between them I'll be happy.
Although the top level stats in the league may not be great, Michu is still a classy finisher but needs the opportunities which have generally been lacking across the team, so the next question is 'Where have Swansea's Clear Cut Chances gone?'
Twitter: @we_r_pl http://www.twitter.com/we_r_pl
Match Stats: Created using Statszone , Whoscored and Squawka and EPL Index
Other Posts: Johan Gudmundsson - a player for January?