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Friday, 9 November 2012

Southampton - Swansea Betting

Perhaps surprisingly given their current position, Southampton are favourites for the game against Swansea and are best priced 6/4 (William Hill).

Overall best prices for the match result are:

As a bookie needs to make a profit, any set of odds they provide for a given event will have a total probability of over 100% (the corrected odds reduce them slightly to the 'true' odds).  For this event for example, the average book a bookie has is 105.6% but due to differences in opinion, taking the best price gives an almost perfect book where the odds provided could be considered the 'true' likelihood of an event happening.

Generally speaking, a bookie's margin will depend on the total amount bet on an event and the number of possible outcomes.  Where there are numerous outcomes it's easier to price up what look like attractive odds but actually have big margins.

A good example of this is the first goalscorer market where Rickie Lambert is favourite at a best priced at 6/1 and Michu/Graham/Jay Rodriguez all available at 7/1.  At first glance Michu at 7/1 seems like great value, but when you add up the best odds of all quoted players it comes to over 250%.

This is in part due to terrible odds for players who are likely to get little game time e.g., Moore is 8/1, this is largely done to avoid the bookie getting turned over by someone with inside knowledge where a striker unexpectedly starts.  Realistically speaking, for Moore to be first scorer, it's likely that the match would have to be at a scenario where it's 60 or so minutes in and goalless.

Even excluding players who are likely to not start the game, there's still a far bigger mark up than for other markets.  Generally speaking, first/last goalscorer is best left to just sticking a couple of quid on a centre back scoring e.g., Monk at 50/1 given that Chico may not be fit.

As a guide to the competitiveness of markets, below are the overall best book values for a range of bets:
Looking at the available odds, the optimist in me likes a 3-1 Swans win (25/1 Bet Victor) and the slightly more realistic side sees Southampton Half Time / Draw Full Time at 16/1 (Betfred) as good value.  The pessimist in me with memories of our games against Stoke and Villa says Southampton to win by 2+ goals at 13/2 (Ladbrokes) is a good back up.

All odds from Oddschecker as at approx 17:00 Fri 9th Nov.