Thursday, 9 July 2015

Swans: True to 22 - Some thoughts and figures

Back on Sunday I wrote about how '..The way clubs treat the Away Fans initiative is symbolic of what they think of their fans' so I was blown away yesterday when Swansea announced their True to 22 scheme.

I'd argued previously that although Swansea were one of the clubs putting the most effort into the Away Fans Initiative, I felt it was better spent on lower ticket prices rather than programmes, free shirts etc., I suggested that the £200k would best spent on those who may find it hardest to afford to go and without means testing everyone that'd probably be the Under 25s.

What Swansea have done has gone hugely beyond that, in their statement launching the scheme they estimate the saving to be £300k but personally I think it'll be closer to £500k.

The figures are a bit back of a fag packet but Swansea's figures estimate someone going to every away game will save £250, not everybody will end up buying tickets via the Jack Army subsidy but I think a huge amount will, especially for the bigger (and usually more expensive) games.

Last year's Chelsea allocation was 2,200, I've seen the odd post mentioning it may be 3k this year.  If we take the lower figure that could be £60k subsidy in one game with similar if not more for Man Utd Away.

Clubs are prohibited from charging more for away fans than the equivalent seats for home fans (Newcastle have got fined for this in the past) so teams can't just whack up the price knowing Swansea will pay the difference, but it may be that after finishing 8th and being in their 5th season in the Premier League there may be fewer Category C type fixtures such as the £25 v Arsenal.

Ultimately whether it's £300k or £500k it's still relatively small beer to the sums clubs are receiving from TV etc., but is a hugely symbolic step, time will tell if the Swans are swimming against the tide or are able to force the hand of a few other clubs as well.

For anyone who feels that home fans are being missed out, 19 games at £22 each=£418 and early bird prices for season tickets were from £419 so from that point it seems fair and that's before you've factored in travel costs etc.,

While you'd have too be mad to criticise the scheme there will be some consequences of it.  The system is being changed slightly so Jack Army members who are season ticket holders can still buy in the second week of sale (which seems fair enough), what they haven't said is if the 30% of any allocation that was kept back previously for the 2nd week will still be happening.  I'm assuming so or otherwise the full allocation could well be gone in the first week.

Even if the 30% are held back then that means for Chelsea for example there could be 660 tickets available for non-ST holders which could end up going in minutes (maybe I'm over-hyping things but £22 for first game of the season at the title holders could go quickly, even if it's live on TV and a 5.30pm kick off).

This seems like the perfect time to make use of the Jack Army points system which for the last couple of years has been largely redundant.  There's plenty of ways you can quantify who 'deserves' first crack at tickets, but is hopefully something that'll be looked at and that's before we get on to anything Wonky Sheep related....

There's plenty of conspiracy theories flying around and some inter-forum bickering but they are legit as confirmed by Vice-Chairman Leigh Dineen:
It's a bit of an extreme scenario but the main question is what happens if 3,000 Jack Army season ticket holders want to go to Watford but there's only 2,000 tickets? When the ticket office (virtual and real) open at 10am one Monday morning, who is at the front of the queue, do Wonky Sheep get priority or already have a number of tickets allocated to those who meet the ticketing criteria or do Wonky Sheep customers risk the ultimate nightmare of a weekend in Watford without even getting to watch football?

Sunday, 5 July 2015

The Symbolism of the Away Fans Initiative

For me, the Away Fans Initative/Fund is a great example of how the Premier League works with even something as relatively small fry as this producing vastly different approaches for clubs in ways in which they deal with their fans.

For those of you that haven't heard about it, to encourage the 'Away Fan Experience' the Premier League persuaded/encouraged/forced each PL club to assign £200k of its budget each season to benefit Away fans.  It isn't extra cash just a small proportion ring-fenced for a certain area.

I've written about this in the past here showing how at the end of the 13/14 season Southampton seemed to blow most of it on the final game of the season at Swansea, but it seems that Swansea themselves may have done something similar (albeit on a smaller scale) with their 'Free Home Shirt' voucher offer on their last game of the season at Crystal Palace.

For those buying tickets for the Palace game, along with the tickets they also received a voucher for the 2014/15 home shirt and as a result the Swans received a fair amount of positive publicity.

Looking at the May minutes of the Swansea supporters trust, there was the following paragraph:

"The Away Fan initiative continues which has been successful in helping the fans absorb some of the cost of away travel, as usual there has been ticket reduction as well as a meal deal, free programme and for the Crystal Palace fixture a free shirt"

This suggests that the cost of the shirts (which had recently been reduced to £15) has been taken from the £200k budget (if that's not the case I'm happy to stand corrected, but haven't heard back from a couple of the board members I tweeted about the Away Fans Fund).

Not everyone would redeem their vouchers but probably would have been about 2-3,000 redeemed, so £30-40k of the £200k budget spent on a single game (again if it isn't out of that budget happy to stand corrected).

This isn't a case of sour grapes as I was one of the people that got a free shirt out of this but personally I think the budget could be better spent.  Another example was the free programme for the game away to Arsenal.  It's a nice programme (always good to read Michael Cox/Zonal Marking's view on things) but at £3.50 a time (assuming Arsenal charge cost price) that's maybe another £10k of the budget gone.

Michael Cox bang on the money again in his preview of Arsenal-Swansea before Gomis' late winner.
Some clubs are a bit boring and just knock a few quid off every ticket, some like Everton make more of an effort and actually work on the Away Fan Experience at Goodison Park (along with things for travelling Evertonians).  Then you have Hull where it seems they've taken quite an extreme approach and look to have spent most, if not all of it on facilities/services for Away fans travelling to Hull, whether this is out of spite for the whole 'Hull Tigers' situation or an aim to keep any spend within the club I don't know but certainly seems to have annoyed Hull fans.

Although Swansea are one of the more proactive clubs with regards to any away fans initiative, in my opinion rather than free shirts or programmes, the fund would be better off spent on subsidised tickets/travel for those who need the assistance most with the most obvious example being under 25s (some matches/clubs have reduced prices for under 18s or even under 22, but it's a bit sporadic).

I'd rather a sizeable discount went to fans in this group than on a 'nice to have' item such as a programme for everybody.

None of this touches on the wider area of ticket pricing in general but at the very least it'd be good to see an itemised list of what each club has spent the £200k on so that approaches can be compared across clubs, the closest thing is this from the FSF which showed clubs plans early on in the season but wouldn't take too much more to fully show where the money is spent.

There's a breakdown of the FSF finding and more over at The Swansea Way.

Friday, 10 April 2015

Gomis - Lyon and Swansea Shot locations compared

3 goals in 2 games and all of a sudden things are looking a lot better for Bafetimbi Gomis, but it's a fine line between apparent success and failure.  Gomis' goal against Villa came in the 87th minute after a number of good opportunities earlier in the game weren't converted but backs up the saying that the important thing is still being in the right place to miss the chances as eventually things will turn.

Gomis started the season effectively as back-up striker to Wilfried Bony, despite Gomis mentioning previously that he felt the two would be used together more often, this was fairly unlikely anyway but circumstances at the start of the season made it even less so.

In the final pre-season game, both Gomis and Bony started in what was a pretty abject team display against Villareal.  To a large extent the team selection/shape was down to injuries and giving a run out to the main first team squad who were still fit and was it was unlikely that both would start away to Man Utd in the opening game of the season.

The other thing that made a partnership of Gomis and Bony less likely was the superb start to the season with 3 straight wins in the league so little incentive to change a winning formula.  Monk showed his faith in Gomis starting him in the 4th league game v Chelsea as Bony had been away midweek on Cup of Nations duty, it's unlikely that the same would have happened if Schechter/Vazquez/N'Gog had been the option.

Unlike those 3, Gomis is a proven goalscorer having reached double figures in the French League in each of the last 8 seasons with a total of 30 goals combined in the last 2 (16 in 2012/13 and 14 in 2013/14).

Looking at where the shots/goals came from shows a different pattern in those  2 seasons and the season so far with Swansea:
In 2012/13 Most activity (and goals) came from directly in front of goal from around 8-15 yards out 

Last season at yon, a little less in the 6 yard box but mainly still central or to the right
This season with Swansea, far more activity to the left half of the pitch compared to the previous 2 seasons at Lyon
If I had more time I'd split out penalties/free kicks/headers and also look at how the emergence of Lacazette impacted Gomis' play over the last 2 seasons at Lyon. Ultimately, after a stuttering start things finally seem to be settling down for Gomis whether this is him now feeling at home or just putting a shift in to attract buyers next season time will tell.

Twitter: @we_r_pl
Match Stats: Created using Statszone , Whoscored  and Squawka

Monday, 23 February 2015

Swans 2 - Man Utd 1 Stats and Chalkboards

They might not be the force they once were, but a league double over Manchester United is still a pretty impressive feat.  Van Gaal's moaning about luck is a sign that he doesn't want anyone to go over in too much detail how they played, especially after going 2-1 down.

He has a small case to say that they were unfortunate in that they had plenty of the ball (Swansea's 35% possession must be close to a record low at the Liberty) and had a flurry of attempts in a 15 minute period early on in the second half.
Swansea's 2 shots in the 73rd minute are technically the same event in that Gomis is judged to have scored with his deflected effort coming as a result of Shelvey's shot.  Gomis might be a bit lucky to get the credit for this one but was largely responsible for the goal v West Ham that went down as an OG. 
As with the Southampton game, there's an element of fortune in a goal from a long range shot, but that is turned into a win as a result of hard work and defensive organisation throughout the match. Despite the number of extra shots from Manchester United, in terms of quality of chance that was far more even.

When looking at passing volumes, this shows a similar story to the shot activity, with Swansea rarely averaging more than 4 passes a minute as they rarely built up any control with the ball but even before the winner, it felt like a goal was more likely from a Swansea counter-attack than Man Utd's possession.

Being mainly composed of elbows and hair, Fellaini is not the kind of guy who can be inconspicuous. Sometime's 'stick it long to the big guy' is a valid tactic but even this didn't seem to be particularly well executed, partly due to the presence of Fabianski who is far more dominating in his box than Vorm ever was.

I was surprised when going back over the stats that Fellaini only had 6 aerial duels, which show how often he was allowed to win the ball to enable any Swansea defender to compete for any knock down rather than getting involved in a duel, losing it and then being temporarily out of the game (this is similar to tactics applied to the likes of Crouch and Andy Carrol in the past).
Fellaini with 6 fouls, double that of the next player and as many as the whole Swansea team.  Fellaini with 60 passes received, 10 more than Rooney and plenty of them as a result of a long pass.
If time allowed, a more detailed look at the lineup with only 1 recognised winger would be interesting, there's was talk that Monk had a plan and it certainly seemed a well thought out selection and strategy.  With another top flight season all but guaranteed, it'll be interesting to see how much experimentation there is between now and the end of the season.  Without wanting to wish the season away, to some extent pre-season for 2015/16 has already begun.

Twitter: @we_r_pl
Match Stats: Created using Statszone , Whoscored  and Squawka 

Tuesday, 10 February 2015

Garry Monk - 38 League games in

Saturday's game against Sunderland saw Garry Monk now being in charge of Swansea for the equivalent of a full season (38 games).  In that time he managed 52 points which compares favourably with Rodgers (47 points) and Laudrup (46).

When looking at Swansea's performance on a rolling basis, it's possible to get a feel for highs and lows over the last 3 and a half seasons:

Rodgers with 47 points in Swansea's first season was actually better than Laudrup's total even though Swansea ended up finishing a place higher in the league.
For me, the thing that stands out is the decline that preceded Laudrup's sacking with only 36 points from 38 games at the point he left, which is relegation form, you could explain it slightly by the complete switching off post the Capital One Cup win (strictly speaking things started to go sour the week before with the 5-0 defeat to Liverpool post a mid-season trip to Dubai).

Although the 3-0 win v. Cardiff in Monk's first game saw an immediate upturn in fortunes it wasn't an instant turnaround with then just 3 points in the subsequent 6 games, but to Monk's credit the close to last season and this season so far have been impressive.

38 games is obviously a long period over which to track performance, smaller time periods offer a more immediate level to evaluate even if they are more variable just by chance runs and relative fixture strength.

Looking at performance over a 19 game period gives the opportunity to compare Rodgers as well and the noticeable improvement in Swansea's showing in the 2nd half of 2011/12 was in no small part to the first coming of Gylfi.
Rodgers with 20 points in first half of season and 27 in second (Gylfi first played in game 21 v Arsenal, with game 20 being a win v Aston Villa so wasn't all down to Gylfi).
6 games is often used when people talk about the 'Form Guide', it may not offer the best insight into a team's behaviour but does help to show swings in highs and lows.
Monk with a couple of periods of 15 points from 6 games which is phenomenal (if unsustainable).  Laudrup with 1 points from 6 shortly before getting sacked.  Rodgers never getting less than 4 points from a 6 game period also quite impressive given it was Swansea's first season in the league
As I've said before, overall Laudrup did great things for us, even if it did turn sour in the last few months especially. It's also maybe a bit unfair to compare current squad performance where £5m players are the norm with Rodgers' squad but overall you could argue that there's been generally a period of gradual improvement every season for the last 7-8 years (even last season you could argue the knockout stages of the Europa and running Napoli so close was a feat to rival the Capital One cup win).

Swansea are now in a weird situation where they are a well managed stable club that could finish between 9th and 14th in the league for the forseeable future.  Even given Southampton's incredible season, chances are they'll still end up finishing 7th.

The amount of money required to have any realistic expectation of top 4 (or even top 6), is huge and would probably require a Leeds style 'buy now pay later' approach which main bring short term fun but a long term headache.

Comfortable mid-table may not be the most exiting thing in the world but it definitely beats the 'Interesting Times' going on elsewhere.

Friday, 2 January 2015

QPR 1 - Swans 1 Stats, Chalkboards and Conspiracy Theories

"Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you", as a stats man I'm a fairly rational guy and talk of an anti-Swansea agenda from referees, the FA etc., usually has me shaking my head, but what I saw Loftus Road was a bit of a farce.

I was at the other end of the ground but I could tell Rob Green saved outside the box so I have no idea how the officials missed it, I can only only assume they saw it but didn't think anything of a goalkeeper making a diving save and forgot to check whether he was inside the box. The other options, that they just didn't notice or thought the handball was unintentional are arguably even worse decisions.

If we move away from foaming at the mouth anger and try and look at recent decisions rationally, there's still plenty to be angry about but some of the decisions made are understandable (even if they were wrong).

Routledge Red
Karl Henry almost goes through Routledge but thanks to Wayne's quick reactions he doesn't get hurt although understandably does lose his rag.  Arguably Henry could see red for a very dangerous challenge, but usually the lack of contact means it'd be a yellow.  Routledge does move his foot towards Henry and perhaps from the linesman's view looks like he made contact, so completely wrong decision but not totally imagined (update: Red has now correctly been rescinded).

Shelvey and Sterling Incidents
Depending on the level of burden of proof, I'd say it's probably more likely than not that Shelvey meant to swing an arm at Can and seeing as the FA have a 99% conviction rate when they bring these kind of charges it would have been crazy to appeal considering 2 of the 4 games missed where QPR and Tranmere where Shelvey would either be unlikely to play or not as important for the Cup game.

I'm pretty sure the ref saw it but made the call that it wasn't deliberate, I assume he gets to watch the incident (or at least hear about it) before writing his report so can choose to include it or not.  For incidents like that, full speed and slo-mo look completley different so possibly the ref could argue that he didn't see exactly what happend so it could be retrospectively punished.

Sterling's slap while technically a red, he probably got away with because of the complete non-reaction from Fernandez, so it looked more like a toddler having a tantrum than violent conduct.  Worse for me was the little nudge from Sterling that pushes Fernadez off the pitch where there is little space between pitch and the crowd and was a bit of a cheap shot.  Also, as it was obviously seen, there's no chance of any retrospective action.

Fabianski Red
If you ignore the hand-ball in the build up (if you don't Ash probably gets sent off instead), then Fabianski's challenge was a foul and rightly a red.  If you start to rescind Red cards based on earlier phases then you'd end up arguing that a Red shouldn't happen as a throw was assigned the wrong way 30 seconds earlier.  It's a bit crap, but it's the rules. 

Fernandez Red in Capital One Cup
This was rightfully rescinded although I do have a small bit of sympathy for the referee, Coutinho loses control of the ball and creates a 50-50 situation where as I watched it I expected a lunging two footed tackle.  Fernandez being an Argentinian international defender rather than a non-league clogger clears the ball safely but I can only assume the ref in the moments before the challenge is expecting a lunge and so goes with what he's expecting rather than what actually happens.

Stoke Penalty
Moses cheats and the ref falls for it, although Rangel's hands are close enough to Moses' back to make it look realistic at full speed.

Bony/Shelvey/Rangel Reds
Of these 3, only Rangel could complain about their second yellow and again was harsh rather than completely made up.

It's probably not a coincidence that all but one of these incidents was away from home, when it comes to split second calls, crowd reaction is bound to have some effect.

If you assume that officials make 1 gigantic balls up every couple of games, then there's bound to be a team that over a short period of time seems to get everything going against them in a similar way to how Newcastle put runs together of being incredible or terrible when in reality they are an average team.

Back to the match yesterday and even with 5-10 minutes left and a goal down (but with 11 men), I felt that we could still get 3 points.  This was an odd game with 49 efforts (second highest in league after QPR-Leicester) but didn't feel like a game full of quality chances (or quality at all).

After a good start, post the Rob Green handball, Swansea were pretty disjointed, but large amounts of pressure late on as QPR sat back
Gomis starting was a bit of a surprise but made some sense in that Dunne has the turning circle of a supertanker so more pace through the middle was a valid idea, it also could be thought of as a show of confidence in Gomis ahead of him being the main striker for the next 6 weeks or so.

The ball spent an awful lot of time in the air, I don't have the stats to hand but 60 headed clearances seems an awful lot:

This was an odd game in that it felt all the way through that if we could just string a few passes together we'd tear them to pieces, how much of that was bad passing (there was certainly some of that) and how much was organised work from the QPR midfield would need another watch.

The only plus point about the Routledge red was that it made Bony's equaliser even more enjoyable, although the 4 shot scramble by QPR at the end of the game could have made it a pretty sour start to the year.  It's going to be a tough few weeks with a stretched squad, but could give the likes of Barrow/Carroll a real opportunity for a run of games.

Twitter: @we_r_pl
Match Stats: Created using Statszone , Whoscored  and Squawka

Wednesday, 31 December 2014

Half Season Analysis - Actual vs Deserved Points

Despite the Liverpool defeat, 28 points at the halfway stage is pretty impressive and for all the talk about the 'magic 40 points' target for safety, quite often mid 30's is enough, so as a whole, the first 19 games have to be considered a success in points terms at the very least.

Ultimately that's the stat that matters, but overall have we got what we deserved or been lucky/unlucky?  In any particular game you can say 'if only' and although 19 games isn't enough for everything to even itself out, it does start to provide better clues to the longer term performance.

In terms of shots per game, Swansea are actually 18th in the league, although this will in part be due to the amount of time Swansea have spent in front (generally speaking, the team leading takes fewer shots than the team chasing the game - although not necessarily good quality shots).

On a not overly scientific basis, I went through the 19 games and put a 'deserved' score down based on how I felt each match went in terms of shots/game state (i.e., scoring first) and overall performance.  This provides an rough estimate of what I thought we were worth in each match, with Liverpool being the lowest and West Brom being the highest.
No game is ever a 0 or a 3 but somewhere in between 
I tried to do this for each match without too much thought of the other games but was surprised as to how close to the actual total my estimate was.

You could probably pick apart any individual estimate above and everyone would have differing opinions on relative performances but I think the key this season has been beating the 'smaller' teams (along with the wins over Arsenal and Man Utd which were a bonus).

The first half of the season saw Swansea play Home to 5 of the current bottom 6 (all except Hull) which in part explains why Swans are 5th when looking just at home form so starting with QPR on New Years Day the away schedule should arguably get easier but the home one tougher.